Simon’s Yukun Liu Contributes to Launch of Groundbreaking Index Tracking Global Supply Chain Disruptions

Supply Chain

On April 23, 2025, a cross-university team of economists, including Yukun Liu, associate professor of finance at the University of Rochester’s Simon Business School, launched the Blue Center Index of Critical Supply Chain Disruptions, a powerful new tool designed to help firms and policymakers identify breakdowns in the flow of essential goods with unprecedented speed and precision.

Unveiled at an event hosted by Yale University, the Blue Center Index reflects years of collaborative research between faculty at Simon Business School, Yale, Princeton, and the University of Virginia. The project offers a near real-time view of global trade activity across a carefully identified group of critical goods, making it possible to detect abnormalities and disruptions in the movement of key materials and products, often within just two weeks of occurrence.

“Our contribution at Simon centered on refining the machine learning models and developing the underlying economic frameworks to quantify disruption,” said Professor Liu. “We’re helping stakeholders pinpoint not just where trade is breaking down, but also why it's happening and what actions can be taken in response."

To build the Index, the research team analyzed hundreds of millions of records from customs, census, and financial data sources, some of which were accessed through Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests. By integrating trade flows with financial indicators such as firm balance sheets and market forecasts, the tool offers a granular snapshot of disruptions and their potential economic impact at the firm level. The index can also link supply chain disruption to firms' actual stock prices and real activities, allowing us to study potential implications to the financial market and broader economy.

Professor Liu’s expertise in financial economics and large-scale data analysis was key in building methodologies that allow users to analyze trade patterns across regions, product categories, and origins. The team’s computational approach identified 152 goods deemed “critical” because of their security, economic importance, and sensitivity to international policy shifts such as tariffs and export controls.
“What sets this index apart is both its scale and its timeliness,” said Liu. “For example, if an aerospace firm like Lockheed Martin or a healthcare provider needs to understand supply risks related to a specific component, we can provide insights rapidly, using data that’s only about two weeks old.”
This innovation has broad implications for policy and industry. As supply chain shocks continue to shape global markets, the Blue Center Index equips decision-makers with real-time intelligence that can inform trade policy, risk management, and strategic sourcing.

The project was supported by the Blue Center for Global Strategic Assessment at Yale’s Jackson School of Global Affairs, along with the Cowles Foundation and the Tobin Center for Economic Policy. The launch event featured remarks from national security experts and government advisors, underscoring the tool’s potential relevance to U.S. economic and security policy.

“This is a prime example of how business school research, grounded in rigorous economic theory and cutting-edge data science, can shape global systems,” Liu added. “At Simon, we are proud to contribute to a project with such meaningful, real-world impact.”